DEVELOPMENT OF A DYNAMIC MODELLING TOOL FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS IN RELATION TO GHG MITIGATION MEASURES

Peteris Rivza, Ivars Mozga, Laima Berzina

Abstract


The present research study outlines a methodology for assessing agricultural production forecasts in Latvia with regard to the outcome of GHG emissions. A dynamic model was developed, which allows assessment of effects of various decisions and measures on agricultural production. The model consists of several mutually connected blocks: 1) modelling of agricultural indicators with relation to macroeconomic indicators; 2) calculation of GHG emissions according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines; 3) scenarios for analysing the impact on emissions by various mitigation measures, and 4) results for summarising the modelling outcome. The developed model may be used as a decision support tool for impact assessment of various measures to reduce emissions and for seeking solutions to GHG emission mitigation by agricultural policy decisions. The model was developed using the Powersim Studio software.

Keywords


GHG emissions; dynamic model; agriculture

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.17770/etr2017vol2.2588

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