SCIENTIFIC BASES FOR STOCK MARKET FIASCO FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY WITH USE OF INFORMATION SPACE ENTROPY

Vasily Karasev, Ekaterina Karaseva

Abstract


The article contains a theoretical study and description of general algorithm for predicting a stock market fiasco caused by non-financial and other factors. Market fiasco is considered as non-periodical, sudden and random event which can arise due to the many latent reasons. Methods of technical and fundamental analysis are useless to solve this problem, therefore, the use of systems analysis methods is proposed. The author’s idea is the numerical calculation of search queries entropy as a part of global information space. Decrease in the Renyi’s entropy, associated with rapid grow search queries, containing key terms from the subject area, indicates the possible stock market fiasco in the near future. This article presents an algorithm for the dynamic calculation of Renyi’s entropy, allowing predict rare events which are not reflected in statistical data (or frequency of their realizations is too small). The method and algorithm can be realized in trade information systems and decision-making systems in economic sphere.

 


Keywords


Stock market, uncertainty, risk, forecasting, fiasco, collapse, Renyi entropy, information space, frequency, algorithm, technology

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.17770/etr2021vol2.6508

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