ON THE ISSUE OF PLANNING SOWING AGRICULTURAL CROPS WITH THE MINIMUM RISK UNDER THE PRESENCE OF VARIOUS AGROCLIMATIC CONDITIONS

Authors

  • Sharif E. Guseynov Faculty of Science and Engineering, Liepaja University (LV)
  • Sergey Matyukhin Department of Technical Physics and Mathematics, Orel State University (RU)
  • Misir J. Mardanov Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences (AZ)
  • Jekaterina v. Aleksejeva Institute of Science and Innovative Technologies, Liepaja University, Riga Secondary School 34 (LV)
  • Olga Sidorenko Department of Accounting and Statistics, Orel State Agrarian University (RU)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17770/etr2021vol1.6649

Keywords:

Agricultural crops, agroclimatic conditions, maximum profit, minimal risk

Abstract

The present paper deals with one problem of quantitative controlling the seeding of the sown area by agricultural crops in different agroclimatic conditions. The considered problem is studied from the standpoint of three strategies: from the seeding planning perspective aiming at minimal risk associated with possible unfavourable agroclimatic conditions (a probabilistic approach is used); from the perspective of obtaining the maximum crops sales profit (a deterministic approach is used); from the perspective of obtaining the maximum crops harvest. For the considered problem, mathematical models are constructed (one probabilistic model and two deterministic models, respectively), their analytical solutions are found, and then, using a specific example, the application of the constructed and solved mathematical models is illustrated as well as the obtained numerical results are analysed..

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre, "Latvijas klimats." [Online]. Available: https://www.meteo.lv/lapas/laiks/latvijas-klimats/latvijas-klimats?id=1199&nid=562 [Accessed: March 14, 2021]

D. Spaar, H. Kleinhempel, and R. Fritzsche, Getreide, mais und futtergräser. Berlin, Germany: Springer-Verlag, 2013.

J. S. Rayfield, K. L. Smith, T. D. Park, and D. B. Croom, Principles of agriculture, food, and natural resources: Applied Agriscience. Tinley Park: Goodheart-Wilcox Publisher, 2015.

S. Clark, Ed., Sustainable agriculture-beyond organic farming. Basel: MDPI AG, 2016.

A. N. Esaulko, V. V. Ageev, and L. S. Gorbatko, Agrochemical survey and monitoring of soil fertility. Stavropol: Stavropol State Agrarian University, 2013.

R. E. Planant, Spatial data analysis in ecology and agriculture using R. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2018.

A. V. Kilchevsky and L. V. Khotyleva, Eds., Genetic foundations of plant breeding: General plants genetics. Minsk: Belarusian Science, 2008.

A. V. Kilchevsky and L. V. Khotyleva, Eds., Genetic foundations of plant breeding: Private plants genetics. Minsk: Belarusian Science, 2010.

A. N. Yadav, J. Singh, A. A. Rastegari, and N. Yadav, Eds., Plant microbiomes for sustainable agriculture. Cham: Springer Nature, 2020.

E. I. Koshkin and G. G. Guseinov, Ecological physiology of agricultural crops. Moscow: Prospect Publishing, 2020.

A. Nurbekov, A. Kassam, D. Sydyk, Z. Ziyadullaev, I. Jumshudov, H. Muminjanov, D. Feindel, and J. Turok, Practice of conservation agriculture in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Ankara, Turkey: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Publishing, 2016.

A. Nurbekov, A. Musaev, D. Sydyk, Z. Ziyadullaev, and J. Turok. Conservation agriculture in irrigated areas of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Beirut: International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, 2015.

Ch. Gienapp, D. Dreger, A. Zaharenko, etc., Cereal crops: growing, harvesting, reworking and using. Moscow: "DLV AgroDelo" Publishing, 2008.

"European Commission. EU prices for selected representative products. Monthly prices for vegetal products." [Online]. Available: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/market-prices-vegetal-products_en.pdf [Accessed: March 14, 2021]

Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Latvia, "Agriculture Annual Reports. Agricultural Report 2019 for 2018." [Online]. Available: https://www.zm.gov.lv/public/files/CMS_Static_Page_Doc/00/00/01/62/36/2019_lauks_gada_zinojums.pdf [Accessed: March 14, 2021]

Latvian Rural Advisory and Training Centre. [Online]. Available: http://new.llkc.lv/ [Accessed: March 14, 2021]

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation, "FAOSTAT: Crops." [Online]. Available: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC [Accessed: March 14, 2021]

Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development. Goverment of Western Australia, "Agriculture and Food: Sowing." [Online]. Available: https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/crops/production-postharvest/sowing [Accessed: March 14, 2021

O. Diekman, H. Heesterbeek, and T. Britton, Mathematical tools for understanding infectious disease dynamics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012.

J. W. Jones, J. M. Antle, B. Basso, et al, "Toward a new generation of agricultural system data, models, and knowledge products: State of agricultural systems science," Agricultural Systems, vol. 155, pp. 269-288, 2017.

J. H. M. Thornley and J. France, Mathematical models in agriculture: quantitative methods for the plant, animal and ecological sciences. Wallingford: CABI Publishing, 2007.

M. A. Vodounon, "Mathematical models can make farmers more efficient," African Technology Forum, vol. 8, no. 1, 5 p., 2017.

P. Mérel and R. E. Howitt, "Theory and application of positive mathematical programming in agriculture and the environment," Annual Review of Resource Economics, vol. 6, pp. 451-470, 2014.

V. A. Pavljushin and N. N. Semenova, Eds., Mathematical modelling in plant protection. St. Petersburg: All-Russian Research Institute of Plant Protection Press, 2014.

Ch. B. S. Teh, Introduction to mathematical modelling of crop growth. Boca Raton: BrownWalker Press, 2006.

P. K. Thornton and G. Hoogenboom, "A computer program to analyze single-season crop model outputs," Agronomy Journal, vol. 86, no. 5, pp. 860-868, 1994.

C. S. Bernard and J. S. Nix, Farm planning and control. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1980.

P. B. R. Hazell, and R. D. Norton, Mathematical programming for economic analysis in agriculture. London: Macmillan Publishing, 1986.

J. Glen, "Mathematical models in farm planning: A survey," Operations Research, vol. 35, pp. 641-666, 1987.

J. France and J. H. M. Thornley, Mathematical models in agriculture: A quantitative approach to problems in agriculture and related sciences. Boston: Butterworths Publishing, 1984.

R. Beneke and R. Winterboer, Linear programming: Application to agriculture. Ames: Iowa State University Press, 1973.

G. E. Dalton, Ed., Study of agricultural systems. London: Applied Science Publishing, 1975.

V. D. Baranov and I. G. Tarakanov, Crops harvest programming. Moscow: Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University Press, 1990.

A. N. Polevoy. Theory and calculation of the productivity of agricultural crops. Leningrad: GidroMeteoIzdat Publishing, 1988.

A. N. Polevoy. Applied modelling and forecasting of crops productivity. Leningrad: GidroMeteoIzdat Publishing, 1988.

M. K. Kayumov, Programming the productivity of field crops. Moscow: RosAgroPromIzdat Publishing, 1989.

N. I. Mozhaev, N. A. Serikpaev, and G. Zh. Stybaev, Crops harvest programming. Astana: Foliant Publishing, 2013.

V. V. Gritsenko and V.E.Dolgodvorov, Fundamentals of programming crop yields. Moscow: AgroPromIzdat Publishing, 1986.

S. A. Vorobiev, A. N. Kartashev, A. M. Lykov, and I. P. Makarov, Arable farming. Moscow: AgroPromIzdat Publishing, 1991.

J. Baier, V. Cerny, M. Ferik, et al., Harvest formation of main agricultural crops. Moscow: KOLOS Publishing, 1984.

V. A. Dukhovny, S. A. Nerozin, G. V. Stulina, and G. F. Solodkiy, Crops harvest programming: System approach into applied to amelioration. Tashkent: 2015.

M. G. Kendall and A. Stuart, The advanced theory of statistics: Inference and relationship. London: Charles Griffin & Company, Ltd., 1961.

D. R. Cox and E.J.Snell, Applied statistics: Principles and examples. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2020.

A. S. C. Ehrenberg, Data reduction: Analysis and interpretation of statistical data. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1975.

A. S. C. Ehrenberg, A Primer in Data Reduction: An Introductory Statistics Textbook. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2007.

A. N. Shiryaev, Probability. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1996.

B. V. Gnedenko and I. A. Ushakov, Theory of Probability. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 1988.

A. A. Samarskii and A. P. Mikhailov, Principles of mathematical modelling: Ideas, methods, examples. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2018.

N. N. Moiseev, Selected works: Interdisciplinary studies of global problems. Moscow: Tydex Co, 2003.

N. N. Moiseev, Numerical methods in the theory of optimal systems. Moscow: Nauka Publishing, 1971.

N. N. Moiseev, Mathematical problems of system analysis. Moscow: Nauka Publishing, 1981.

A. N. Bogolyubov. Fundamentals of mathematical modelling. Moscow: Moscow State University Press, 2001.

O. G. Alekseev, Complex application of discrete optimization methods. Moscow: Nauka Publishing, 1987.

B. Ya. Sovetov and S. A. Yakovlev. Modelling of systems. Moscow: Higher School Publishing, 2001.

S. V. Avrutik, Ed., Solving nonlinear programming problems in a deterministic, discrete, and probabilistic setting: Algorithms and programs. Irkutsk: Siberian Power Engineering Institute of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences Press, 1976.

I. B. Zagaytov and L. P. Yanovsky, Prediction, foresight, forecast in reproduction planning. Voronezh: Voronezh State Agrarian University Press, 2011.

I. B. Zagaytov, L. P. Yanovsky, V. G. Raskin, and S. N. Dementyev, The 'ZONT' method in forecasting fluctuations of natural harvest conditions. Voronezh: Voronezh State Agrarian University Press, 1996.

I. B. Zagaytov and L. S. Vorobyova, Forecast of fluctuations of the natural conditions of agricultural production, and world statistics of harvests. Voronezh: Voronezh State Agrarian University Press, 1998.

E. V. Zakshevskaya, S. V. Kuksin, and I. B. Zagaytov, "The strategy of state regulation of the Russian grain market based on the grain production forecasts," Herald of the Voronezh State Agrarian University, vol. 4, no. 51, pp. 169-178, 2016.

I. B. Zagaytov, Planning and forecasting the development of agricultural-industrial complex. Voronezh: Voronezh State Agrarian University Press, 2004.

Yu. S. Khokhlov, "Stable distributions and their generalizations, structure and limit theorems," Dr.Sc.Math. thesis, Steklov Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, 1996.

B. V. Gnedenko, Cours of probability thoery. Moscow: Editorial URSS, 2005.

G. A. Holton, Value at risk: Theory and practice. San Diego: Academic Press, 2003.

P. Lévy, "Propriétés asymptotiques des sommes de variables aléatoires indépendantes ou enchaînées," Journal de Mathématiques Pures et Appliquées, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 347-402, 1935.

H. Cramer, "Über eine eigenschaft der normalen verteilungsfunktion," Mathematische Zeitschrift, vol. 41, no. 1, pp. 405-414, 1936.

R. A. Horn and Ch. R. Johnson, Matrix analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985.

F. P. Vasiliev, Methods for solving extremal problems. Moscow: Nauka, 1981.

A. G. Sukharev, A. V. Timokhov, and V. V. Fedorov, A course of optimization methods. Moscow: Nauka, 1986.

V. A. Ilyin, V. A. Sadovnichiy, and Bl. H. Sendov, Mathematical analysis: Basic course. Moscow: Lomonosov Moscow State University Press, 1985.

The Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System (UniSIS), "Yield of agricultural crops." [Online]. Available: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/31533 [Accessed: March 25, 2021]

The Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System (UniSIS), "Gross harvest of agricultural crops." [Online]. Available: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/30950 [Accessed: March 25, 2021]

Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, "Official Statistics." [Online]. Available: https://rosstat.gov.ru/ [Accessed: March 25, 2021]

K. E. Laikam, A. V. Bazarov, N. A. Vorobyova, et. al., Eds., Results of the 2016 All-Russian Agricultural Census, Vol. 1: Highlights, Book 2: The main results of for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Moscow: "Statistics of Russia" Information and Publishing Centre, 2018.

T. P. Ustinova, N. E. Dmitrieva, L. I. Akimova, M. V. Andreyuk, and M. Yu. Balakhnev, Eds., Orel region in figures, 2011-2016: Brief statistical collection. Orel: Territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Orel Region, 2017.

O. V. Sidorenko, "Efficiency of grain production in agricultural organizations: factors and priorities of ensuring," All-Russia Research and Trade Journal of Legums and Groat Crops, vol. 4, no 36, pp. 236-14, 2020

Department of Agriculture of the Orel Region, "Department activities." [Online]. Available: http://apk.orel-region.ru/index.php?cont=97 [Accessed: March 14, 2021]

Expert and Analytical Center of Agribusiness, "AB-Center." [Online]. Available: https://ab-centre.ru/ [Accessed: March 25, 2021]

J. B. Kruskal, "On the shortest spanning subtree of a graph and the traveling salesman problem," Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society, vol. 7, no 1, pp. 48-50, 1956.

Hydro-meteorological Research Center of Russian Federation, "Actual weather archive." [Online]. Available: https://meteoinfo.ru/archive-pogoda/russia/oryol-area [Accessed: March 20, 2021]

Research and Production Centre "Map Maker", "GIS Meteo: Weather diary in Orel region." [Online]. Available: https://www.gismeteo.ru/diary/4432/ [Accessed: March 20, 2021]

T. L. Ivaneha and N. A. Studennikov, "The state of soils in the farms of the Orel region and State support measures of soil fertility," Bulletin of Rural Development and Social Policy: Theoretical and Practical Journal, vol. 4, no. 16, pp. 40-43, 2017.

The Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System (UniSIS), "Sown area by agricultural crop kinds." [Online]. Available: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/37662 [Accessed: March 23, 2021]

The Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System (UniSIS), "The structure of sown areas agricultural crop kinds." [Online]. Available: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/37661 [Accessed: March 23, 2021]

K. E. Laikam, A. V. Bazarov, N. A. Vorobyova, et. al., Eds., Results of the 2016 All-Russian Agricultural Census, Vol. 4: Sown areas of agricultural crops and areas of perennial plantings and berry crops, Book 1: Areas of crops and perennial plantings. Moscow: "Statistics of Russia" Information and Publishing Centre, 2018.

K. E. Laikam, A. V. Bazarov, N. A. Vorobyova, et. al., Eds., Results of the 2016 All-Russian Agricultural Census, Vol. 4: Sown area of agricultural crops and areas of perennial plantings and berry crops, Book 2: The structure of sown areas. Grouping of census objects according to the size of sown areas. Moscow: "Statistics of Russia" Information and Publishing Centre, 2018.

N. K. Kruzhkov, V. T. Lobkov, and V. V. Napolov, Agroecological foundations of biologization of husbandry in the Central forest-steppe of the European part of Russia. Orel: Orel State Agrarian University Press, 2018.

V. T. Lobkov, Using soil-biological factors in husbandry. Orel: Orel State Agrarian University Press, 2016.

A. A. Tsvyrko, "High efficiency of the grain market in the post-crisis development of agribusiness," Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, vol. 11, no 11, pp. 1-8, 2012.

Downloads

Published

2021-06-16

How to Cite

[1]
S. E. Guseynov, S. Matyukhin, M. J. Mardanov, J. v. Aleksejeva, and O. Sidorenko, “ON THE ISSUE OF PLANNING SOWING AGRICULTURAL CROPS WITH THE MINIMUM RISK UNDER THE PRESENCE OF VARIOUS AGROCLIMATIC CONDITIONS”, ETR, vol. 1, pp. 72–83, Jun. 2021, doi: 10.17770/etr2021vol1.6649.