ECOLOGICAL, ECONOMICAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT. DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION RELATED TO CO2 EMISSIONS IN ECUADOR

Authors

  • Andrés Robalino-López Escuela Politécnica Nacional
  • Zanna Aniscenko University of Seville

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17770/etr2017vol1.2645

Keywords:

Decomposition Analysis, Sustainable development, Ecuador

Abstract

Decomposition Analysis (DA) is widely applied in understanding changes of economical, technological, environmental, and different indicators as energy consumption, employment and other socio-economic indicators. This work discusses the DA methodology and is applied within Ecuadorian case. We present the used technique, the applied mathematical methodology and the construction of an appropriate identity to measure the change of CO2 emission in Ecuador during the period of 1980-2025. Change is measured in both macro and disaggregated sectorial level. Specific aspects related to the application of DA to both the historical period (1980-2010) and in medium term prevision (2011-2025) for four proposed macro scenarios are discussed. The findings show that the evolution of the BS scenario, which implies a trend-growth GDP scenario, is almost a flat curve, however the CO2 emission increases steadily because of the absence of attenuation measurements. A similar behavior, although slightly sloping down, is observed for SC-2 scenario, where a rapid growth of the GDP is assumed without any attenuation action regarding to CO2 emissions. The other two scenarios, SC-3 and SC-4 show a steady reduction of the Dtot = Dact ratio due to the changes in the sectorial structure and in the energy mix, which allows compensation of rapid GDP growth. This analysis suggests that, with the appropriate changes in the energy mix, the sectorial structure, and the share of renewable energies, Ecuador can move into a more environmentally sustainable state.

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Author Biography

  • Andrés Robalino-López, Escuela Politécnica Nacional
    Andrés Robalino-López is a Professor at Escuela Politécnica Nacional (EPN) in Ecuador. He is a ICT Engineer at EPN, has two Master Degrees related with Environmental Technologies and Industrial Control at University of Huelva (UHU), Spain and a Postgraduate in Energy and Environment Management at Glasgow Caledonian University, United Kingdom. He also did a Ph.D. in Environmental Technologies at UHU related on energy use and development using a System Dynamics approach. His e-mail address is : andres.robalino@epn.edu.ec and his Web-page can be found at https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Andres_Robalino-Lopez.

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Published

2017-06-15

How to Cite

[1]
A. Robalino-López and Z. Aniscenko, “ECOLOGICAL, ECONOMICAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT. DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION RELATED TO CO2 EMISSIONS IN ECUADOR”, ETR, vol. 1, pp. 229–234, Jun. 2017, doi: 10.17770/etr2017vol1.2645.